Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Reported holdings period ending January 31st, 2020:

  • A robust start to the year, with reporting holders marking up their private portfolios 9.2%.
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:

ZX Market Update as of March 31st, 2021:

  • ZX saw 54% more bids than asks in March, continuing the now 9 month trend of ZX bid volume exceeding ask volume.
  • March ZX transactions priced from a 32% discount to a 304% premium to a company’s most recent financing.

Heat Map: January 31st, 2021 Reporting Period

9.20%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

18.90%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
UiPath
234.9%
Databricks
229.5%
SoFi
186.3%
Rivian
137.9%
Nuvia
134.5%
Aurora Innovation
112.7%
Topgolf
80.1%
23andMe
66.0%
Delphix
64.4%
MOD Pizza
53.7%
Grand Rounds
28.6%
Tory Burch
27.9%
Proterra
27.5%
HashiCorp
26.0%
Tempus Labs
24.1%
Riskified
20.9%
Butterfly Network
19.8%
GitLab
19.4%
Malwarebytes
18.4%
Illumio
17.6%
Sema4
14.8%
Confluent
13.4%
Farmers Business Network
12.3%
Tula Tech
11.0%
Convoy
10.1%
Optoro
9.5%
Reddit
9.4%
Sharecare
9.2%
AvidXchange
8.8%
ClearMotion
8.6%
Tanium
6.1%
Alkami
5.9%
Loadsmart
5.8%
Cazoo
5.8%
Rent the Runway
5.4%
SambaNova
5.3%
Zero Mass Water
4.9%
Wheels Up
4.8%
Lookout
4.7%
LegalZoom
4.4%
Warby Parker
4.4%
Talkdesk
3.9%
Fanatics
3.5%
Didi Chuxing
2.9%
Dataminr
2.8%
Allbirds
2.8%
Marqeta
1.1%
Grab
0.5%
Ant Financial
0.3%
Prosetta Bio
0.0%
Stripe
0.0%
Sonder
0.0%
Nuro
0.0%
Endeavor
0.0%
Waymo
0.0%
Rappi
0.0%
FIGS
0.0%
AgBiome
0.0%
SpaceX
0.0%
Epic Games
0.0%
Lime
0.0%
Starry
0.0%
Miss Fresh
0.0%
MasterClass
0.0%
Magic Leap
-0.1%
JumpCloud
-0.2%
Honest Co
-0.4%
Essence Group
-0.9%
Bolt Threads
-1.1%
JUUL
-3.2%
Smule
-3.4%
Nuvation Bio
-4.2%
Rubicon Global
-6.7%
Sweetgreen
-9.5%
WeWork
-15.3%
Immunocore
-20.4%
Taboola
-31.1%
Zenefits
-91.9%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

Analysis

Positive Trend Reversal3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Honest Co
12
Grab
8
UiPath
6
Didi Chuxing
5
ClearMotion, Riskified
4
Negative Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Ant Financial
9
Honest Co
9
Nuvation Bio
5
Immunocore
2
Smule, Sweetgreen, Taboola
2

3 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
4 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

Highest Variance in Reported Marks5
CompanyNormalized Std Dev5$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Dataminr.46$13.25$29.63$11.00
Honest Co.17$31.00$41.42$25.32
MOD Pizza.15$274.12$298.07$201.05
Tory Burch.14$62.16$72.42$54.62
Didi Chuxing.13$44.26$56.77$39.17

5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

ZX Firm Bids at Greatest Premium to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
SpaceX
+83.3%
Instacart
+83.3%
Confluent
+71.8%
Epic Games
+18.3%
MasterClass
+3.5%
ZX Firm Offers at Greatest Discount to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
Bolt Threads
-7.5%

6 Premium and Discount agnostic to share class

Commentary

Following the strong end to 2020, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios 9.2% in the January reporting period. The robust start to 2021 saw broad-based gains with nearly four companies advancing for every one marked down.

Six companies were marked-up by 100% or more: UiPath, Databricks, SoFi, Rivian, Nuvia and Aurora Innovation. Zenefits, Taboola and Immunocore saw the period’s largest mark-downs.

Honest Co and Grab saw positive reversals across individual funds for the first time in two years while UiPath, Didi Chuxing, ClearMotion and Riskified all saw positive reversals for the first time in a year or more. Ant Financial and Honest Co saw negative reversals across individual funds for the first time in more than two years, while Nuvation Bio saw a negative reversal for the first time in over a year.

Dataminr saw January’s highest reported variance across funds, with some reported holders marking their stock as high as $29.63/share while others held their stock as low as $11.00/share. Honest Co, MOD Pizza, Tory Burch and Didi Chuxing rounded out the top five for the highest variance in reported marks.

ZX Market Updates Since Reporting Date

ZX saw 54% more bids than asks in March, continuing the now 9 month trend of ZX bid volume exceeding ask volume. March ZX transactions priced from a 32% discount to a 304% premium to most recent financings.

On average, ZX Firm Buy Orders sit at a 52% premium to January’s median holding values, highlighted by bids in SpaceX, Instacart and Confluent at 83.3%, 83.3% and 71.8% respectively. On the sell-side, Bolt Threads is being offered at 7.5% discount to its January median holding value.

What is a ZX Firm Order?

ZX Firm Orders are unique to ZX. A ZX Firm Order (Offer or Bid) is a form of contract accepted on ZX, that allows a buyer or seller to contractually commit themselves to trading at the terms of an order ticket should a bona fide counterparty be presented, or pay a fee set to 10% of the notional value of the transaction should they fail to transact. Zanbato developed the concept of a Firm Order for private stock trading to solve for frequent frustration that parties often hold themselves out as buyers or sellers, but then pull out of transactions when counterparties are presented.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 200+ funds. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance.

Zanbato Securities LLC (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for factual information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information was believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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