Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Reported Holdings as of March 31, 2020:

  • Shareholders broadly marked down private holdings in response to Covid-19, with almost 3 companies marked down for every 1 marked up.
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:

ZX Market Update since March 31, 2020:

  • While pricing levels have generally fallen, liquidity persists for late-stage private company shareholders.
  • ZX buy ticket volumes have spiked since February’s public market peak.
  • Investors are assessing companies individually. Deep discounts in some companies are being contrasted by trades in others at premiums to recent trading and last financings.

Heat Map: March 31, 2020 Reporting Period

-13.62%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

-16.57%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
Udemy
41.8%
Wrike
39.22%
Bytedance
38.43%
Impossible Foods
38.1%
Outset Medical
37.5%
Code 42
22.54%
Marqeta
22.16%
Toast
22.15%
Revolut
21.7%
DigitalOcean
14.84%
ZocDoc
13.52%
Tempus Labs
12.99%
Blend
12.34%
DraftKings
11.94%
Dataminr
8.98%
Rubrik
5.88%
Databricks
4.77%
Lookout
3.98%
Passport
3.0%
Ant Financial
2.89%
Varsity Tutors
2.81%
XANT.ai
2.74%
Grand Rounds
0.6%
The Honest Company
0.56%
Heap
0.55%
Ripple
0.34%
Rivian
0.0%
Prosper Marketplace
0.0%
Pluribus Networks
0.0%
Planet
-0.17%
Tanium
-0.19%
INRIX
-0.37%
Turo
-0.4%
Robinhood
-0.64%
SpaceX
-0.9%
Metabiota
-0.93%
OpenX
-1.1%
KeepTruckin
-1.65%
ThoughtSpot
-1.78%
Tempo Automation
-1.99%
SoFi
-2.02%
Udacity
-2.14%
Coursera
-2.75%
Optimizely
-2.9%
Starry
-3.71%
Course Hero
-4.04%
ChargePoint
-4.35%
Nextdoor
-4.61%
Bolt Threads
-4.94%
GitLab
-5.24%
Clover Health
-5.58%
Coupang
-5.79%
WideOrbit
-6.48%
PubMatic
-8.94%
Grab
-9.13%
23andMe
-9.4%
Palantir
-11.01%
GroundTruth
-11.36%
D2iQ
-11.56%
Delphix
-13.31%
Didi Chuxing
-13.68%
Sonder
-14.75%
Reddit
-16.09%
Convoy
-16.66%
Klarna
-17.28%
TransferWise
-18.78%
Wag
-20.47%
WeWork
-21.85%
Malwarebytes
-21.98%
Aurora Innovation
-22.63%
Sprinklr
-25.78%
UiPath
-25.94%
Seismic
-25.98%
Vroom
-26.0%
Ginkgo Bioworks
-26.0%
Gusto
-26.0%
Paytm
-26.0%
Checkr
-26.0%
Stripe
-26.0%
1stdibs
-26.0%
Sweetgreen
-26.0%
Rent the Runway
-26.0%
ServiceTitan
-26.0%
Houzz
-26.01%
DoorDash
-26.62%
Allbirds
-26.82%
Wheels Up
-27.3%
Deliveroo
-28.88%
Carbon 3D
-30.77%
Postmates
-31.78%
Magic Leap
-31.91%
Airbnb
-32.98%
JUUL
-35.24%
Circle
-36.65%
Bird
-40.3%
Lime
-45.73%

This report is based on data reported by 208 funds. Period-to-period comparisons are measured quarterly to coincide with reporting intervals. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance.

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

Notable Adjustments to Individual Positions

Largest % Mark-Up
Outset Medical
+53.8%
Udemy
+41.8%
Wrike
+39.5%
Bytedance
+38.4%
Largest % Mark-Down
WeWork
-77.0%
Lime
-65.4%
Carbon 3D
-57.3%
Airbnb
-42.1%
Trend Reversal - Positive3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Varsity Tutors
7
Impossible Foods
2
Magic Leap
2
Nextdoor
2
Trend Reversal - Negative4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
SpaceX
11
Vroom
10
Coupang
9
Carbon 3D
8
ZX Firm Bids at Greatest Premium to Latest Reported Median Holding Value5
Impossible Foods
+40.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
ZX Firm Offers at Greatest Discount to Latest Reported Median Holding Value5
Ripple
-49.5%
XANT.ai
-41.6%
Circle
-26.7%
Udacity
-23.6%

3 Trend Reversal – Positive reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
4 Trend Reversal – negative reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat
5 Premium and Discount agnostic to share class

Commentary

As expected, this March 31 reporting period sees COVID-19 impact in greater detail. In the month that CBOE’s VIX hit a new record high of 82.69 (surpassing the 2008 global financial crisis high), reporting holders’ portfolios depreciated 13.6%. The decline was broad-based, with an approximately 1:3 advance-decline ratio. It was also the second largest decline we’ve observed. The largest, -16.7%, occurred in the November 30, 2019 reporting period, which reflected outsized mark-downs in JUUL ($95.58/share) and WeWork ($3.60-$16.00/share) holdings, but in that month the advance-decline ratio was better than 1:1.

Mark-ups in Wrike ($1.20/share), Bytedance ($68.23/share), DraftKings ($2.99-$3.97/share), and Ant Financial ($6.21-$7.02/share) contributed the largest dollar gains to portfolios, while mark-downs in Airbnb ($64.84-$101.20/share), Magic Leap ($16.19-$27.00/share), Deliveroo ($287.60-$336.73/share), and WeWork contributed the largest dollar losses.

On average, positions were marked down 16.6% this reporting period. Largest individual position mark-ups were seen in Outset Medical ($1.63-$2.66/share), Udemy ($15.30/share), Wrike, and Bytedance, while WeWork, Lime ($0.09-$0.24/share), Carbon 3D ($11.96-$26.75/share), and Airbnb saw the largest individual position mark-downs.

Modest but notable individual fund negative reversals in SpaceX ($196.22-$231.96/share) and Coupang ($5.43-$5.86/share) demonstrate that all private company holdings underwent increased scrutiny this March period.

ZX Market Updates Since Reporting Date

While many private stock valuations have been under pressure since March 31, liquidity has persisted for later stage private company shareholders. Since public markets peaked in February, buy ticket volumes on ZX are up 170% and average buy ticket value is up by 80%. While some companies are seeing price discounts of up to 60% to recent transactions or primary raises, others are being valued at premiums of up to 8%.

On average ZX Firm Sell Orders are being offered at a 22.3% discount to March 31 average holding value, suggesting that some holdings may have further to fall. Firm sellers of Ripple ($59.44/share), XANT.ai ($4.50/share), Circle ($10.58/share), and Udacity ($6.74/share) pulled down the average, with shares offered at 49.5%, 41.6%, 26.7%, and 23.6% discounts, respectively.

At a sector level, eCommerce continues to see strength with Wish and Coupang seeing bumps in trading values. Payments companies which enable eCommerce are seeing similar strength, such as Stripe ($11.61/share), Marqeta ($4.63/share), and Klarna ($199.96/share). Data & Analytics companies, like ThoughtSpot ($13.26/share) and Databricks ($31.78-$45.55/share), moved higher as well.

Weakness has persisted in Hospitality and Mobility; and in Clothing & Apparel companies Allbirds ($8.30-$9.54/share), Rent the Runway ($16.54/share), and Bolt Threads ($13.29/share).

What is a ZX Firm Order?

ZX Firm Orders are unique to ZX. A ZX Firm Order (Offer or Bid) is a form of contract accepted on ZX, that allows a buyer or seller to contractually commit themselves to trading at the terms of an order ticket should a bona fide counterparty be presented, or pay a fee set to 10% of the notional value of the transaction should they fail to transact. Zanbato developed the concept of a Firm Order for private stock trading to solve for frequent frustration that parties often hold themselves out as buyers or sellers, but then pull out of transactions when counterparties are presented.

Disclaimer

Zanbato Securites LLC (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for factual information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information was believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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