Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Reported holdings period ending February 28th, 2021:

  • An almost 20% mark-up in private portfolios saw holders in February report the largest monthly appreciation in 2 years.
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:

ZX Market Update as of April 30th, 2021:

  • ZX saw 20% more asks than bids in April, a notable reversal of the 9 month trend of ZX bid volume exceeding ask volume.
  • April ZX transactions priced from an 8% premium to a 215% premium to most recent financings.

Heat Map: February 28th, 2021 Reporting Period

19.1%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

11.4%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
Doximity
320.4%
Rivian
134.8%
Aurora Innovation
112.7%
Instacart
106.2%
Nuvia
89.9%
Rover
71.7%
Toast
71.3%
Plex Systems
67.6%
SpaceX
55.6%
Dataminr
42.7%
Heal
36.3%
Faraday Pharma
36.2%
Castle Creek
35.8%
23andMe
32.5%
Moda Operandi
32.4%
Topgolf
31.6%
Aristea Therapeutics
30.8%
Vera Therapeutics
30.1%
Ambrx
25.2%
Adagio Therapeutics
22.1%
Element Bio
21.7%
EQRx
21.1%
Druva
20.0%
PrognomIQ
19.8%
Conformal Medical
19.2%
MOD Pizza
18.3%
Freenome
17.9%
Inscripta
16.6%
Wheels Up
16.3%
ServiceTitan
15.2%
JUUL
13.3%
Tory Burch
12.4%
Verily
11.1%
Lookout
10.3%
AvidXchange
10.0%
SnapDeal
7.8%
Goop
7.3%
Didi Chuxing
6.9%
Kardium
4.8%
Cazoo
4.5%
Convoy
4.3%
Warby Parker
2.7%
Honest Co
0.4%
Cava
0.0%
Tempus Labs
0.0%
Fanatics
0.0%
Stripe
0.0%
1stdibs
0.0%
Bright Health
0.0%
Sonder
0.0%
Nuro
0.0%
Ginkgo Bioworks
0.0%
Insitro
0.0%
Farmers Business Network
0.0%
Seismic
0.0%
HaulHub
0.0%
Magic Leap
0.0%
FLEXE
0.0%
Waymo
0.0%
Rappi
0.0%
Caris
0.0%
Checkr
0.0%
AgBiome
0.0%
LegalZoom
0.0%
Xometry
0.0%
Bytedance
0.0%
Riskified
0.0%
Honor Tech
0.0%
Epic Games
0.0%
Rent the Runway
0.0%
Intarcia Therapeutics
0.0%
Resilience
0.0%
D2iQ
0.0%
Allbirds
0.0%
RefleXion Medical
0.0%
Starry
0.0%
MasterClass
0.0%
Shift Technology
-0.8%
Bolt Threads
-4.8%
Vice Media
-7.6%
Sweetgreen
-8.2%
Dragonfly Therapeutics
-8.9%
Essence Group
-11.3%
WeWork
-11.3%
Reddit
-14.2%
Lime
-26.0%
Ant Financial
-33.1%
Taboola
-48.8%
Atom Tickets
-55.2%
Bird
-55.6%
Zenefits
-92.1%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

Analysis

Positive Trend Reversal3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Deliveroo
8
Didi Chuxing, JUUL
5
Dataminr, Endeavor
3
UiPath, Plex Systems
3
Negative Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Honest Co
9
Reddit
8
Ant Financial, Taboola
4
Essence Group
3

3 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
4 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

Highest Variance in Reported Marks5
CompanyNormalized Std Dev5$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Intarcia Therapeutics4.72$0.78$18.17$0.00
Moda Operandi.25$16.03$23.27$13.79
Xometry.23$10.16$13.62$8.00
JUUL.18$67.26$76.84$51.37
Sweetgreen.17$55.47$59.60$40.83

5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

ZX Firm Bids at Greatest Premium to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
Epic Games
+18.3%
SpaceX
+17.9%
Databricks
+12.8%
Ginkgo Bioworks
+6.5%
Color Genomics
+4.2%
ZX Firm Offers at Greatest Discount to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
Bolt Threads
-4.5%

6 Premium and Discount agnostic to share class

February Commentary

Reporting holders marked up their private portfolios 19.1% — the largest monthly appreciation in 2 years, largely attributed to Rivian, SpaceX and Instacart. Appreciation was broad-based, with over three private companies advancing for every one marked down.

The largest gainers, Doximity, Rivian, Aurora Innovation and Instacart, were each marked-up 100% or more. Zenefits, Bird, Atom Tickets, Taboola and Ant Financial were the most marked-down.

Deliveroo saw its first positive reversal in two years ahead of its March IPO. Didi Chuxing and JUUL saw their first positive reversals in over a year. Negative reversals were seen in Honest Co and Reddit for the first time in two years or more, and in Ant Financial and Taboola for the first time in a year.

Shares in Intarcia Therapeutics saw the highest reported variance across funds, with some holders marking the most recent share class as high as $18.17/share, while earlier share classes were written off. Moda Operandi, Xometry, JUUL and Sweetgreen rounded out the top five highest variances.

ZX Market Updates Since Reporting Date

ZX saw 20% more asks than bids in April, a notable reversal of the 9 month trend of ZX bid volume exceeding ask volume. April ZX transactions priced from an 8% premium to a 215% premium to most recent financings.

On average, ZX Firm Buy Orders sit at a 10.5% premium to February’s median holding values, highlighted by bids in Epic Games, SpaceX and Databricks at 18.3%, 17.9% and 12.8% respectively. On the sell-side, Bolt Threads is offered at a 4.5% discount to its February median holding value.

What is a ZX Firm Order?

ZX Firm Orders are unique to ZX. A ZX Firm Order (Offer or Bid) is a form of contract accepted on ZX, that allows a buyer or seller to contractually commit themselves to trading at the terms of an order ticket should a bona fide counterparty be presented, or pay a fee set to 10% of the notional value of the transaction should they fail to transact. Zanbato developed the concept of a Firm Order for private stock trading to solve for frequent frustration that parties often hold themselves out as buyers or sellers, but then pull out of transactions when counterparties are presented.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 200+ funds. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance.

Zanbato Securities LLC (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for factual information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information was believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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