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ZX Data private stock trade

Executive Summary

  • This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 3.3% ($ weighted) with an average mark-up of 5.1% (equal weighted).
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:
  • In December, 21% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 32% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks.

Heat Map: October 31st, 2024 Reporting Period

3.3%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

5.1%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
FiNC
290.5%
Lightmatter
189.1%
Cybereason
183.9%
x.AI
68.9%
goPuff
51.7%
OpenAI
51.7%
Lime
40.9%
Impulse Dynamics
37.5%
Rad Power
36.9%
Bolt
36.2%
Caresyntax
24.6%
Canva
22.3%
Versa Networks
22.2%
Arctic Wolf
21.7%
PsiQuantum
18.8%
Caidya (dMed)
18.3%
Flock Safety
18.0%
Anthropic
17.0%
Caris
15.9%
KoBold Metals
15.8%
Algolia
14.4%
AbogenBio
14.3%
Signifyd
13.6%
Xsight Labs
13.5%
Tory Burch
13.4%
Benchling
11.2%
Waymo
10.9%
Blockdaemon
10.2%
Pine Labs
9.7%
CoreWeave
9.6%
Farmers Business Network
9.4%
VAST Data
8.3%
Databricks
7.9%
Tanium
7.6%
Ant Group
7.1%
Hammerspace
6.8%
Bytedance
6.7%
MNTN
6.7%
Fanatics
5.7%
Lenskart
5.3%
Figma
4.9%
SpaceX
4.7%
BETA Technologies
4.6%
Teya (SaltPay)
4.3%
Ursa
4.3%
Newsela
4.2%
Figure AI
3.9%
Replit
3.9%
Skyryse
3.7%
Dataminr
3.0%
Checkr
2.8%
Flexport
2.4%
Celonis
2.3%
Noodle
1.8%
Epic Games
1.7%
Moloco
1.5%
JumpCloud
1.4%
Deep Instinct
1.2%
Wugen
1.2%
Breeze Airways
1.0%
Tula Tech
0.8%
X Holdings
0.7%
Castle Creek
0.6%
Frore Systems
0.3%
Snorkel AI
0.3%
Sonoma Bio
0.3%
Source
0.3%
Starling Bank
0.3%
YuLife
0.3%
Diamond Foundry
0.2%
Retym
0.2%
Verge Genomics
0.2%
Astranis
0.1%
Tenstorrent
0.1%
A24 Films
0.0%
Anduril
0.0%
Applied Intuition
0.0%
Blaize
0.0%
Boom Supersonic
0.0%
Chime
0.0%
EndeavorBio
0.0%
Evozyne
0.0%
Exo Imaging
0.0%
Fabletics
0.0%
Gusto
0.0%
Menlo Micro
0.0%
Mythical
0.0%
Neon
0.0%
Nuro
0.0%
Outrider
0.0%
RapidSOS
0.0%
Rappi
0.0%
Rapyd
0.0%
SandboxAQ
0.0%
Sila Nano
0.0%
Snyk
0.0%
Sortera Tech
0.0%
Stripe
0.0%
VerAI
0.0%
VideoAmp
0.0%
Zipline
0.0%
Optoro
-0.1%
SiMa ai
-0.3%
Wasabi Technologies
-0.3%
Axiom Space
-0.4%
Bright Peak
-0.4%
Meesho
-0.4%
Freenome
-1.2%
Andpad
-1.3%
ClearMotion
-1.9%
Akeana
-2.2%
Lookout
-2.5%
GupShup
-2.7%
Alif Semi
-2.9%
Grammarly
-3.6%
Jetti Resources
-3.9%
Discord
-4.0%
Resilience
-4.2%
Loadsmart
-4.3%
Redwood Materials
-4.7%
Druva
-4.9%
Relation Therapeutics
-5.1%
Lilac Solutions
-5.3%
Blink Health
-5.4%
JUUL
-5.6%
OneTrust
-6.3%
Included Health (Grand Rounds)
-7.5%
Lessen
-7.9%
Treeline Bio
-8.4%
SambaNova
-9.6%
Circle
-10.4%
Essence Group
-11.7%
Phononic
-13.2%
Enevate
-14.3%
MasterClass
-14.6%
CelLink
-16.7%
GOAT
-16.7%
Savage X
-17.6%
T-Knife
-18.6%
Smule
-27.5%
Verily
-31.1%
Illumio
-42.0%
LifeMine
-64.3%
Relativity Space
-71.5%
ABL Space
-94.4%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 3.3% ($ weighted) with an average mark-up of 5.1% (equal weighted). The period saw five advancing companies for every three declining companies.

FiNC experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Lightmatter, Cybereason and x.AI. SaaS, AI & Machine Learning and CloudTech & DevOps saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.

ABL Space saw the largest mark-down followed by Relativity Space, LifeMine and Illumio. Among sectors, Data & Analytics, EdTech and Semiconductors saw the largest mark-downs.

Comparison of ZX Index Value vs. Fund Marks

CompaniesRobustness Score3ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks
X Holdings2+256.70%
Lime1+245.60%
MasterClass1+203.30%
GOAT1+170.60%
Relativity Space2+151.20%
SpaceX8+75.30%
Sila Nano1+73.00%
Anthropic8+65.40%
Loadsmart1+62.30%
GupShup1+56.00%
Flexport2+52.70%
Redwood Materials5+51.80%
Anduril7+35.10%
Figma5+27.50%
Stripe8+26.80%
Meesho1+24.50%
CoreWeave8+22.80%
Databricks7+19.80%
Moloco1+7.50%
VAST Data5+7.20%
OneTrust1+4.00%
Waymo1+0.30%
Discord5-1.10%
Canva5-1.70%
Lightmatter6-3.70%
Bolt4-4.70%
Wasabi Technologies1-5.30%
Shield AI4-5.40%
Benchling1-8.30%
Tenstorrent5-8.50%
OpenAI6-8.90%
x.AI6-12.60%
Lookout1-13.10%
Dataminr1-17.80%
Circle1-18.30%
Blockdaemon5-18.90%
JUUL1-19.80%
Bytedance6-21.40%
Replit2-21.70%
SambaNova6-25.30%
Chime6-27.50%
Epic Games5-28.70%
Cybereason1-28.80%
Checkr1-28.80%
Arctic Wolf1-28.90%
Illumio1-29.10%
Flock Safety5-31.60%
Algolia1-32.20%
Zipline3-33.00%
KoBold Metals1-33.30%
Fanatics4-36.00%
Freenome2-36.10%
Celonis4-36.70%
Tanium1-36.90%
Rapyd2-37.70%
MNTN1-37.90%
Druva1-38.70%
Axiom Space1-39.60%
SandboxAQ4-41.40%
Snyk1-43.80%
Runway AI1-46.50%
VideoAmp1-49.90%
Gusto6-50.80%

3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.

In December, 21% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 32% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, X Holdings, Lime and MasterClass had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. Gusto, VideoAmp and Runway AI had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.

Highest Variance in Reported Marks
CompanyNormalized Std Dev5$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Phononic5.4$0.10$3.01$0.00
Smule2.49$1.50$14.20$0.39
ABL Space1.42$1.57$9.89$0.58
Lookout.78$2.90$8.11$1.00
Rad Power.28$0.63$1.11$0.19

5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

This period, Phononic ($0.00 - $3.01) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Smule ($0.39 - $14.20) and ABL Space ($0.58- $9.89).

Positive Trend Reversal6 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal7 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal6 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Cybereason
12
Celonis
7
Signifyd
7
Noodle
7
Negative Trend Reversal7 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Druva
13
Grammarly
10
Relativity Space
5

6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

Cybereason saw its first positive reversal in twelve quarters while Celonis, Signifyd and Noodle saw their first positive reversals in seven quarters. Druva saw its first negative reversal in thirteen quarters while Grammarly saw its first negative reversal in ten quarters.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $57+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.

The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.

Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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