Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Reported holdings period ending November 30th, 2020:

  • In this edition we introduce the new Highest Variance in Reported Marks section, highlighting the month’s five most volatile companies.
  • Reporting holders marked up their private portfolios 3.8%, reversing October’s reported depreciation.
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:

ZX Market Update as of January 31st, 2021:

  • ZX ticket volumes skewed further to the demand side in January, with ZX seeing 104% more bids than asks.
  • January ZX transactions priced from a 37% discount to a 124% premium to most recent financings, a range that reflects continued bullish sentiment across private markets.

Heat Map: November 30th, 2020 Reporting Period

3.80%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

11.20%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
Adagio Therapeutics
609.1%
VelosBio
486.6%
Tempus Labs
105.4%
Toast
87.5%
Nuvation Bio
78.7%
1stdibs
77.9%
23andMe
66.0%
Topgolf
62.1%
Taboola
39.6%
Instacart
36.9%
Kardium
35.1%
Verily
35.1%
Tory Burch
32.9%
MOD Pizza
22.6%
Immunocore
22.0%
Riskified
20.9%
Element Bio
20.5%
Wheels Up
20.3%
Zenefits
14.9%
Vice Media
13.5%
Checkr
10.6%
Bird
10.2%
LegalZoom
10.0%
Honest Co
7.1%
Moda Operandi
6.6%
Convoy
6.5%
Butterfly Network
5.3%
Atom Tickets
5.2%
Goop
3.8%
Essence Group
3.4%
UiPath
3.1%
Lookout
2.0%
Didi Chuxing
1.9%
Rivian
1.3%
Reddit
1.0%
Warby Parker
0.6%
Coupang
0.5%
ACV Auctions
0.1%
Cava
0.0%
Plex Systems
0.0%
Fanatics
0.0%
Stripe
0.0%
Sonder
0.0%
Dataminr
0.0%
Caris
0.0%
Endeavor
0.0%
Conformal Medical
0.0%
Ginkgo Bioworks
0.0%
Insitro
0.0%
Heal
0.0%
Farmers Business Network
0.0%
Aurora Innovation
0.0%
HaulHub
0.0%
Vor Biopharma
0.0%
SHINE Medical
0.0%
AvidXchange
0.0%
Faraday Pharma
0.0%
Waymo
0.0%
Oscar Health
0.0%
Rover
0.0%
AgBiome
0.0%
Xometry
0.0%
SpaceX
0.0%
Epic Games
0.0%
Rent the Runway
0.0%
Intarcia Therapeutics
0.0%
ServiceTitan
0.0%
Lime
0.0%
Blink Health
0.0%
Dragonfly Therapeutics
0.0%
WeWork
0.0%
Doximity
0.0%
Druva
0.0%
RefleXion Medical
0.0%
Starry
0.0%
MasterClass
0.0%
Castle Creek
0.0%
Freenome
0.0%
Allbirds
-0.1%
SnapDeal
-3.1%
Deliveroo
-5.6%
Sweetgreen
-6.1%
Seismic
-11.5%
Bolt Threads
-25.0%
Ant Financial
-25.9%
JUUL
-39.4%
Magic Leap
-50.0%
D2iQ
-65.7%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

Analysis

Positive Trend Reversal3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal3 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Kardium
7
WeWork
7
Verily
6
UiPath
5
Wheels Up
5
Negative Trend Reversal4 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Ant Financial
5
Bolt Threads
4
Sweetgreen
2

3 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
4 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

Highest Variance in Reported Marks5
CompanyNormalized Std Dev5$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Intarcia Therapeutics4.72$0.78$18.17$0.00
Magic Leap2.33$0.42$2.70$0.00
Lookout.40$6.24$8.03$2.68
Honest Co.23$28.07$45.76$21.66
Xometry.22$10.16$13.62$8.00

5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

ZX Firm Bids at Greatest Premium to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
UiPath
+298.1%
Rivian
+93.7%
SpaceX
+29.6%
Epic Games
+17.4%
ZX Firm Offers at Greatest Discount to Latest Reported Median Holding Value6
Bolt Threads
-9.1%

6 Premium and Discount agnostic to share class

Commentary

November saw reporting holders mark up their private holdings 3.8% and a 3:1 Advance/Decline ratio, with three companies advancing for every one marked down.

The November reporting period saw three companies marked-up by 100% or more, led by Adagio Therapeutics, and followed by VelosBio and Tempus Labs. D2iQ, Magic Leap and JUUL saw the period’s largest mark-downs.

Kardium, WeWork, Verily, UiPath and Wheels Up all saw positive reversals for the first time in a year or more. Ant Financial saw a negative reversal for the first time in over a year, while Bolt Threads and Sweetgreen saw negative reversals for the first time in 4 quarters and 2 quarters respectively.

Intarcia Therapeutics and Magic Leap saw the period’s highest variance across funds in reported marks. This was mainly attributed to several funds writing off investments in both companies. Lookout, Honest Co and Xometry rounded out the top 5 for the highest variance in reported marks.

ZX Market Updates Since Reporting Date

ZX ticket volumes skewed further to the demand side in January, with ZX seeing 104% more bids than asks. January marked the seventh consecutive month of bid volume exceeding ask volume. January ZX transactions priced from a 37% discount to a 124% premium to most recent financings, a range that reflects continued bullish sentiment across private markets.

On average, ZX Firm Buy Orders sit at an 110% premium to November 30th median holding values, highlighted by bids in UiPath, Rivian, SpaceX and Epic Games at 298.1%, 93.7%, 29.6% and 17.4% respectively. On the sell-side, Bolt Threads is the only company being Firmly offered at a 9.1% discount to its November median holding value. The rest of the Firm Sell Orders are being offered at premiums to median holding values.

What is a ZX Firm Order?

ZX Firm Orders are unique to ZX. A ZX Firm Order (Offer or Bid) is a form of contract accepted on ZX, that allows a buyer or seller to contractually commit themselves to trading at the terms of an order ticket should a bona fide counterparty be presented, or pay a fee set to 10% of the notional value of the transaction should they fail to transact. Zanbato developed the concept of a Firm Order for private stock trading to solve for frequent frustration that parties often hold themselves out as buyers or sellers, but then pull out of transactions when counterparties are presented.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 200+ funds. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance.

Zanbato Securities LLC (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for factual information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information was believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

yukacon_arrow_up_right