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ZX Data private stock trade

Executive Summary

  • This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 4.5% ($ weighted) with an average mark-down of 2.2% (equal weighted).
  • Sentiment up:
  • Sentiment down:
  • In September, 23% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 45% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks.

Heat Map: July 31st, 2024 Reporting Period

4.5%

Appreciation/Depreciation of All Reported Holdings1

-2.2%

Average Mark-Up/Mark-Down Across All Reported Holdings2
CoreWeave
99.4%
Essence Group
27.9%
A24 Films
24.5%
Diamond Foundry
23.4%
Tenstorrent
23.2%
Moloco
22.2%
Smule
18.4%
Flock Safety
18.0%
SpaceX
14.0%
Dataminr
13.2%
Evozyne
12.5%
OneTrust
12.5%
Castle Creek
10.4%
EndeavorBio
10.0%
Bolt
9.7%
Loadsmart
9.7%
Caris
9.5%
LifeMine
9.5%
Treeline Bio
9.5%
Menlo Micro
9.3%
Relation Therapeutics
9.3%
Starling Bank
8.3%
Swiggy
8.2%
Benchling
8.0%
Xsight Labs
7.9%
Ursa
6.6%
Retym
6.3%
Blockdaemon
6.1%
Teya (SaltPay)
5.5%
GOAT
5.4%
MasterClass
5.3%
Stripe
5.3%
Tula Tech
5.2%
Discord
5.0%
FiNC
5.0%
ServiceTitan
4.8%
Replit
4.7%
Skyryse
4.7%
Algolia
4.6%
Lime
4.1%
Alif Semi
4.0%
RapidSOS
3.2%
JumpCloud
2.9%
Wasabi Technologies
2.9%
Lightmatter
2.8%
Zipline
2.8%
Bytedance
2.5%
Deep Instinct
2.3%
Versa Networks
2.2%
Checkr
2.0%
Redwood Materials
2.0%
Blink Health
1.9%
Freenome
1.8%
Newsela
1.5%
Waymo
1.3%
PsiQuantum
1.1%
Gusto
1.0%
Relativity Space
0.5%
Figure AI
0.4%
Optoro
0.4%
Sonoma Bio
0.1%
AgBiome
0.0%
Anthropic
0.0%
Blaize
0.0%
Canva
0.0%
Databricks
0.0%
Druva
0.0%
Fabletics
0.0%
Grammarly
0.0%
Impulse Dynamics
0.0%
Jetti Resources
0.0%
JUUL
0.0%
KoBold Metals
0.0%
Nuro
0.0%
Rappi
0.0%
Rapyd
0.0%
SandboxAQ
0.0%
Savage X
0.0%
Snyk
0.0%
Sortera Tech
0.0%
VerAI
0.0%
Verge Genomics
0.0%
Verily
0.0%
VideoAmp
0.0%
Andpad
-0.2%
BETA Technologies
-0.3%
Epic Games
-0.3%
Lenskart
-0.3%
Meesho
-0.4%
Astranis
-0.7%
X Holdings
-0.7%
Axiom Space
-0.9%
Breeze Airways
-1.4%
Bright Peak
-1.8%
SiMa ai
-2.5%
Tanium
-2.7%
Circle
-3.0%
Snorkel AI
-3.0%
VAST Data
-3.1%
Celonis
-3.5%
Tory Burch
-3.5%
Pine Labs
-3.6%
Sila Nano
-3.6%
Ant Group
-4.0%
Hammerspace
-4.1%
Chime
-4.4%
Fanatics
-6.0%
Sortium
-6.2%
Illumio
-6.7%
ABL Space
-6.8%
Caidya (dMed)
-7.1%
ClearMotion
-8.3%
Signifyd
-8.9%
AbogenBio
-9.0%
Arctic Wolf
-9.0%
MNTN
-10.3%
Enevate
-11.4%
Mythical
-12.2%
Phononic
-12.9%
Lookout
-13.7%
SambaNova
-15.6%
CelLink
-15.7%
Included Health (Grand Rounds)
-15.8%
GupShup
-16.1%
KRY
-18.1%
Lessen
-20.3%
Resilience
-21.1%
Cybereason
-21.5%
Wugen
-21.8%
Zero Mass Water
-22.2%
Flexport
-23.8%
Lacework
-26.8%
Lilac Solutions
-27.3%
Neon
-27.8%
YuLife
-30.0%
Exo Imaging
-31.4%
Noodle
-32.7%
Farmers Business Network
-32.9%
goPuff
-32.9%
Rad Power
-40.3%
Caresyntax
-47.6%
T-Knife
-54.6%
Volocopter
-85.9%
Bowery
-99.6%

1 Dollar-weighted return on all reported holdings
2 Equal-weighted mark-up or mark-down across all reported holdings

This quarter, reporting holders marked up their private portfolios by 4.5% ($ weighted) with an average mark-down of 2.2% (equal weighted). The period saw one advancing company for each declining company.

CoreWeave experienced the most significant mark-up, followed by Essence Group, A24 Films and Diamond Foundry. CloudTech & DevOps, Aerospace & Defense and CleanTech saw the largest mark-ups across sectors.

Bowery saw the largest mark-down followed by Volocopter, T-Knife and Caresyntax. Among sectors, AgTech, PropTech, and BioTech saw the largest mark-downs.

Comparison of ZX Index Value vs. Fund Marks

CompaniesRobustness Score3ZX Index Values4 vs. Fund Marks
Farmers Business Network1+190.00%
MasterClass1+157.40%
GOAT2+125.40%
Cybereason1+124.40%
Sila Nano2+77.30%
Lime1+62.30%
Redwood Materials3+62.00%
Loadsmart1+55.30%
Flexport1+45.80%
Bolt1+42.90%
OpenAI7+41.50%
Anthropic7+41.20%
Anduril8+21.20%
Lightmatter5+18.50%
CoreWeave8+17.80%
Checkr2+15.40%
Stripe6+15.30%
Canva6+14.30%
GupShup2+13.40%
Figma7+9.50%
x.AI7+9.20%
Moloco1+9.10%
Meesho4+8.70%
VAST Data4+4.10%
SpaceX8+2.60%
Figure AI2-0.40%
Tenstorrent2-2.40%
Waymo4-3.90%
Algolia1-4.10%
Databricks6-5.00%
Wasabi Technologies2-5.60%
Discord5-5.70%
ServiceTitan4-6.70%
Freenome2-7.00%
Benchling4-11.80%
Blockdaemon1-12.00%
Arctic Wolf6-12.50%
Lookout1-13.60%
Shield AI3-13.80%
Dataminr4-15.00%
Relativity Space4-17.70%
Epic Games5-18.00%
Chime7-24.40%
Tanium1-26.50%
KoBold Metals2-27.00%
Flock Safety5-28.40%
Rapyd4-29.40%
OneTrust1-32.40%
Circle5-32.60%
Fanatics6-32.80%
Snyk5-34.60%
Applied Intuition1-35.00%
MNTN2-38.00%
Zipline5-38.00%
Axiom Space1-39.90%
Bytedance6-41.00%
Druva1-41.90%
SambaNova4-43.20%
Gusto5-46.30%
JUUL1-51.40%
VideoAmp1-51.80%
Celonis1-54.50%
Illumio2-54.70%
PsiQuantum4-64.90%

3 ZXData Robustness Score is an internally developed metric to assign confidence levels to the underlying data used in constructing ZXData output metrics. The ZXData Robustness Score is calculated on a scale of 1 to 10 for each company, based on the number of executed trades, number of buy and sell orders submitted to ZX and skewness of the order book.
4 ZX Index Value is an internally developed metric that reflects secondary values for private companies using an algorithmic approach based on the values sourced from ZX and ZXData partners. The algorithm used to calculate ZX Index Values incorporates both executed transaction values and bid and ask pricing.

In September, 23% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 10% or less compared to Fund Marks, and 45% of companies with ZX Index Values showed a difference of 20% or less compared to Fund Marks. Among the companies, Farmers Business Network, MasterClass and GOAT had the highest positive variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values. PsiQuantum, Illumio and Celonis had the highest negative variance in reported marks versus ZX Index Values.

Highest Variance in Reported Marks
CompanyNormalized Std Dev5$ Weighted AvgMaxMin
Phononic4.46$0.11$2.88$0.01
Smule1.78$2.06$14.59$0.96
Lookout.75$2.97$8.16$1.04
Rad Power.45$0.46$0.72$0.25
Bright Peak.36$1.69$2.74$1.14

5 Normalized Standard Deviation is used to express the measure of spread across reported marks and allows for comparison between companies independent of their price per share based on a dollar-weighted average.

This period, Phononic ($0.01 - $2.88) saw the highest share price variance across funds followed by Smule ($0.96 - $14.59) and Lookout ($1.04 - $8.16).

Positive Trend Reversal6 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
Negative Trend Reversal7 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
Positive Trend Reversal6 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked down or flat)
MasterClass
12
Gusto
11
Loadsmart
9
Caris, Redwood Materials
6
Negative Trend Reversal7 (# = consecutive prior qtrs marked up or flat)
SpaceX
5
Databricks
4
Sila Nano
4
Canva, Circle
2

6 Positive Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked up after consecutive quarterly periods marked down or flat
7 Negative Trend Reversal reflects an individual holding marked down after consecutive quarterly periods marked up or flat

MasterClass saw its first positive reversal in twelve quarters while Gusto saw its first positive reversal in eleven quarters. SpaceX saw its first negative reversal in five quarters while Databricks and Sila Nano saw their first negative reversals in four quarters.

Disclaimer

This report is based on data reported by 300+ funds and $56+ billion of value. Many holders of private company shares do not report their holding values and are thus not included in this report’s dataset. Further, many venture-backed private companies are not held by any reporting funds and are thus not included in this report. As such, this report should not be construed as providing a complete picture of shareholder sentiment or venture-backed private company performance. This report does not constitute investment advice or a "research report" as defined by FINRA Rules.

The “ZX Index Value” is derived by applying proprietary weightings to the order flow data collected for the stated period (both bids and asks), based on the order type (firm order or indication of interest) and whether the order has been executed, with greater weight given to more recent orders.

Zanbato, Inc. (“Zanbato”) prepares and disseminates market information about venture-backed private company securities, and the current bids and offers for those securities listed on the ATS operated by Zanbato (“ZX”). The information provided in this report has been prepared by sales, trading, or other non-research functions. Pricing indications and macro commentary are provided for information purposes only. This report is not intended to assess the individual merits of a particular investment or strategy, does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy and should not be construed as such. This report does not constitute investment advice. Certain information in this report has been obtained from third party sources and, while such information is believed by Zanbato to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Zanbato and Zanbato shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with any use of, or reliance on, such third party information. Furthermore, the information contained in this report may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Zanbato does not, and has no obligation to, update any such information contained in this report. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only, do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size and should not be used for valuation purposes.

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